Provocation as one of the political levers of influence / Провокация как один из политических рычагов влияния

Лескова Ирина Валерьевна ORCID: 0000-0001-6083-6692 кандидат политических наук, доктор социологических наук зав. кафедрой; кафедра политологии и права; Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Государственный университет просвещения» заместитель директора; Центр научно-методического обеспечения государственной культурной политики и традиционных духовно-нравственных ценностей; Федеральное государственное образовательное учреждение высшего образования "Финансовый университет при правительстве Российской Федерации" 105005, Россия, г. Москва, ул. Радио, д. 10А, стр. 2 Leskova Irina Valerevna Head of the Department; Department of Political Science and Law; Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education 'State University of Education' Deputy Director; Center for Scientific and Methodological Support of State Cultural Policy and Traditional Spiritual and Moral Values; Federal State Educational Institution of Higher Education 'Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation' 105005, Russia, Moscow, Radio str., 10A, p. 2 leskova.i@yandex.ru Зинина Юлия Михайловна ORCID: 0009-0007-5555-9791 кандидат филологических наук доцент; кафедра социально-гуманитарных дисциплин; Государственное автономное образовательное учреждение дополнительного профессионального образования Московской области "Корпоративный университет развития образования" доцент; кафедра иностранных языков; Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Государственный университет просвещения» 141006, Россия, Московская область, г. Мытищи, ул. Индустриальная, 13 Zinina Yulia Mikhailovna PhD in Philology Associate Professor; Department of Social and Humanitarian Disciplines; State Autonomous Educational Institution of Additional Professional Education of the Moscow Region 'Corporate University of Education Development' Associate Professor; Department of Foreign Languages; Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education 'State University of Enlightenment' 13 Industrialnaya str., Mytishchi, Moscow region, 141006, Russia jzinina@mail.ru Другие публикации этого автора

Попов Артем Николаевич ORCID: 0009-0001-8618-2348 независимый исследователь 105005, Россия, г. Москва, ул. Радио, д. 10А, стр. 2 Popov Artem Nikolaevich independent researcher 10A Radio str., building 2, Moscow, 105005, Russia karadok7@gmail.com

INTRODUCTION

During the most part of human civilized history, policy played a great role in its development. That is why humanity has always been inventing newer ways to affect political life of their countries and international community. Throughout the history such processes as high sociocultural dynamics, blurring of moral principles, conflicts on global arena and development of international sanctions system formed the prerequisites for provocative practice to become world spread lever of influence. The scheme is visually presented in the picture 1.

Picture 1. Prerequisites for provocations

Nowadays one of the most controversial yet efficient methods that are used in policy is political provocation. Unlike other fields of activity, for example, artistic or scientific spheres, where provocation, despite involving a certain risk, can contain a meaningful point and be some kind of innovation or any creative solution, leading to some kind of scientific or artistic breakthrough, political provocations are interpreted much more unambiguously, almost always with negative context.

METHODOLOGY

The article is more a theoretical description of its subject rather than an experimental work; it is supposed to provide general classification of various types of provocations with exact historical examples. Therefore, such methods of scientific research as analysis of themed literature and public writings, comparison, definition and synthesis were chosen by the authors to reach this goal. The key ideas of the article are illustrated with original schemata and tables.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Political provocation itself can be described as a technique of political confrontation, which aims to provoke retaliatory measures from the enemy and use their consequences to destabilize the situation, cause political crisis, escalate violence, discredit the policies of states, parties, leaders and disinform public by using organized actions of a subversive nature ^[1]. At the same time, the provocateurs try to shift responsibility for political provocation to their opponents. Usually, this technique is used by states, parties, socio-political movements, extremist groups or motivated individuals.

Considering the development of international law and popularization of sanctions nowadays, provocations become one of the most efficient ways to justify various actions of political subjects in the course of their struggle for power. As the time passed people found it useful to explore and improve their provocation techniques. That is why, more and more scientists decided to dedicate their works to this political technique, trying to find out more efficient applications of it. One of the greatest and most comprehensive overview of provocation phenomena is given in the book by Miroslaw Karwat “Theory of Provocation” ^[2]. Nonetheless, other authors also tried to explore provocation under different angles. For example, in the article “Provocation as a social action: defining the phenomenon in the context of cross-disciplinary analysis” by S.V. Tumskiy, its author researches the essence of provocation and main principles that differ it from any other political mechanisms ^[3]. In his other work “A positive provocation in the socio-cultural sphere. The difference between a positive provocation and a negative one” S.V. Tumskiy considers positive side of provocation practice and its influence on the society ^[4]. Another article “Conceptualization of information warfare in the context of the development of modern social networks” written by A.V. Sokolova, gives its readers the description of application of provocations in information wars by usage of less controlled by government digital space ^[5]. The next example, named “Provocative practices in political influence” and published by A.M. Druzhinin, contains research of provocations as a destructive communicative practice yet almost essential for any participators on political arena ^[6]. Moreover, the theme of political provocations was covered by the following authors: I. M. Dzyaloshinsky and R. V. Zholud in their joint scientific article “Provocation in the communication technology system” ^[7], A.V. Dmitriev in his article “Provocations and «color revolutions»” ^[8], T. N. Ivanova in “Political provocations in the media as part of political technologies and their impact on the socio-psychological state of society” ^[9] and numerous other scholars, including L.Y. Zaitseva ^[10], L.E. Ilyicheva and P.D. Khanas ^[11], A.A. Nurmaganbetova and N.V. Mongileva ^[12], M. Buchhandler-Raphael ^[13], A. Dafoe, S. Liu, B. O'Keefe and J.C. Weiss ^[14], O. Driessens ^[15], A. Hasell and B.E. Weeks ^[16], A. Lin ^[17], J. Maddox ^[18], L. Pangrazio ^[19], etc.

The article is meant to provide general classification of provocations with exact historical examples of each. This exploration will be in demand among current politicians, political scientists, political technologists, as well as within the framework of the educational process in higher educational institutions and during conducting scientific researches on issues of political provocations.

The classification of provocations can be based on a number of various criteria but the most popular one is division by their functional purpose [Общая и прикладная политология: Учебное пособие / Под общей редакцией В.И. Жукова, Б.И. Краснова. М.: МГСУ; Изд-во «Союз», 1997 (Zhukov, V.I., Krasnov, B.I. (eds.). General and applied political science: a textbook. Moscow: MGSU, Soyuz, 1997)]. This classification includes 5 main groups and in general terms is presented in the Table 1.

Table 1. Classification of provocations by functional criteria

Below let us consider this classification in more detail with specific historical examples of provocation applications and description of their consequences.

1. Function of a pretext.

Usually, this function refers to solving problems by force, including starting wars or armed conflicts, using troops to invade other country or suppress the uprising within national borders. Any aggressor takes care to give his action the character of just retribution or preemptive strike against inevitable menace. That is why provocations are organized in these cases. At the same time, the provocation itself is a screen that allows its organizers to hide the true intentions of the aggressor at least at the initial stages of action.

One of the most famous acts of provocations causing military conflicts is the Gleiwitz Incident, which started the Second World War. On August 31th, 1939, a group of German SS troops captured their own radio station near the border between Germany and Poland. After it, the Germans broadcasted a speech on Polish about the necessity of war against Germany. Finally, to make people believe in the reality of assault they brought some prisoners dressed as polish border guards and shot them there to prove that their attack was repulsed. Later this event was presented to international community as an aggression of polish forces, justifying German declaration of war on Poland and further invasion of it [Yeager C. The Gleiwitz “False Flag” Incident is Pure Fiction. URL: https://carolynyeager.net/gleiwitz-%E2%80%9Cfalse-flag%E2%80%9D-incident-pure-fiction]. All in all, that provocation had a great success for Germany. This case shows how a well-planned provocative action became the starting point of the Second World War.

2. Function of destabilization domestic and foreign policy.

Speaking about destabilization, destructive forces, such as groups of the separatists, reactionary nationalist and confessional circles, fighting for spheres of influence and their own interests, not being able to reach their goals by constitutional ways, seek to aggravate territorial problems with the help of subversive actions, revive or exacerbate existing national, ethnic, religious contradictions, and bring peoples against each other in the same area or neighbor regions.

Destabilizing provocations can vary depending on their scale, violence rate, sphere of application and many other factors. For example, in 2023 there was a discussion about the building of a mosque in Moscow. The capital authorities intended to put it up it in Kosino-Ukhtomsky district and limit its size to 2.5 thousand square meters. Nonetheless, a group of right radicals spread the information in the Net that the object would be almost 60 thousand square meters and raised a question regarding the foundation of idea about the construction of such a large mosque in the capital city of an orthodox state, trying to confront two religious groups in a multi-confessional country. This dispute had a large scale in media space and almost started several demonstrations both from Christian and Muslim citizens. Finally, the official statement of Moscow Mayor was given: he guaranteed that the mosque would not be a big one and its building would not affect the amount of people, visiting this district [Провокация для дестабилизации: чего добиваются провокаторы в истории вокруг строительства мечети в Москве. Вести Подмосковья. (Provocation for destabilisation: what provocateurs want in the story about the construction of a mosque in Moscow. Vesti Podmoskovya). URL:https://vmo24.ru/news/provokaciya_dlya_destabilizacii_chego_dobivayutsya_provokatory_v_istorii_vokrug_stroitelstva_mecheti_v_moskve]. This provocation almost reached its goal to bring two groups of citizens against each other and only the statement of Moscow Mayor stopped the escalation. This case demonstrates how powerful a simple provocation in the Net, presented at the right angle, can be.

3. Function of discrediting.

Alongside straight force influence, subjects of struggle for power employ indirect ways to undermine the authority of their political rivals. As a rule, such discrediting implies a mixture of true and fictional facts that are used to inflict maximum damage to its object.

Discrediting is a common technique for reducing political power of an opponent, especially before election for senior government positions. That is why Donald Trump’s supporters organized such provocation during his election campaign in 2020. A scandal broke out related to data obtained from a laptop that belonged to Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s son. The owner of a computer store in Delaware, John Paul Mac Isaac, said that a man who called himself Hunter Biden left the laptop for repair and forgot it. However, Mac Isaac stated that he was practically blind and could not say with certainty whether this man was actually Hunter Biden. Nonetheless, three weeks before the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the New York Post published a front-page article featuring emails from the laptop supposedly exposing corruption acts by Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. The official forensics later confirmed the authenticity of some of the emails from the laptop, including one of the two emails used by the New York Post in their initial publication. Trump tried to present this story as incrimination in order to harm Joe Biden’s election campaign, falsely claiming that, while in office, Biden acted corruptly against Ukraine in order to protect his son [Hunter Biden’s laptop full of secret agreements and contracts with foreign business partners. New York Post. URL: https://nypost.com/2023/07/29/hunter-bidens-laptop-full-of-secret-agreements-and-contracts/]. Later in June 2021 PolitiFact wrote that although "over time there became less doubt that the laptop really belonged to Hunter Biden", this laptop "was real in the sense that it actually existed, but it proved little "because "nothing that was discovered in it could be an evidence of illegal or unethical behavior by Joe Biden as vice president in relation to his son, who held the position of director of Burisma for a certain time" [Donald Trump’s 'I was right about everything,' fact-checked. PolitiFact. URL: https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/jun/14/donald-trumps-i-was-right-about-everything-fact-ch]. Although this provocation didn’t have a complete success and wasn’t able to change the result of the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, it created a great resonance in society, building further confrontation between democrats and republicans that had place during the whole Joe Biden’s presidential term.

4. Function of disinformation of public opinion.

Public opinion is a key power for political groups to reach their goals: the more people support them the stronger this exact group becomes. Disinformation is a method when false information is intentionally presented as true one by mass media, in various public appearances or statements.

Throughout the whole history of humanity, disinformation played a great role in politics, especially during crises. For instance, in early 1990s there was an opinion that the USA had been trying to destroy the USSR for many years by raising moral decay in its society. Moreover, supporters of this theory presented the so-called Dulles Doctrine, the document that described potential ways of reducing power of the Soviet Union without direct military conflict with it [The Doctrine of Allen Dulles, Director of the CIA (1945). StukLopechat.com. URL: https://stuklopechat.com/obrazovanie/81715-doktrina-allena-dallesa-direktora-cru-1945.html]. They attributed the authorship to Allen Dulles, the Director of CIA in 1950s. After the fall of the USSR the quotes from this work were widely discussed almost in all editions of the press, on TV channels and during political debates within the country. Nonetheless, there was found no real confirmation that this document had ever existed, the supporters of this conspiracy theory didn’t publish the original text anywhere. However, the provocation succeeded and did what it meant to do: not willing to find common sense, people believed this story and succumbed to emotions. In other words, the new government found it useful to bring people together against outer enemy in this difficult period of post communism, despite deceiving its own nation. Even nowadays, there are consequences of this decision showing extremely negative attitude towards the USA and any their actions from Russian people.

5. Function of disorientation of public consciousness.

Function of this type of provocations is similar to disinformation. However, the main difference is that actions of disorientation are meant to draw the public attention away from current issues by creating a sensation in the other field of society life. Such provocations are usually used by ruling authorities to keep the power in their hands in times of crisis.

The great example of such strategy is The Roswell Incident, a conspiracy theory about the crash of an unidentified flying object near the city of Roswell in New Mexico, USA in July 1947. Firstly, the Army stated that it was a conventional weather balloon. But the enthusiasts didn’t believe it, the photos in press release caused discussion about the true nature of the remains of found flying object, because they seemed too complex and were made of uncommon material for standard meteorological device. Nevertheless, this case remained unpopular for almost three decades until the end of 1970s when Jesse Marcel, a retired major of USA Air Force, gave an interview about the Incident. The officer insisted that the remains of the flying object, explored by him in 1947, were of extraterrestrial origin. Soon after his statement, this speculation became the basis for long-lasting and increasingly complex and contradictory UFO conspiracy theories. Moreover, even the US military officials were forced to give their commentary on this case as they were accused of covering the truth. In 1994 the official statement of the US Air Force was made. In accordance with it, the flying object was identified as aerostat belonged to top-secret Project Mogul, which was aimed to pilot balloons carrying devices to define for Soviet atomic tests near the border with the USSR. In addition, the US officials admitted that the story about UFO had been thoroughly invented and presented to the public to avoid the possible deterioration of relations with the USSR during the Cold War ^[20]. Though, this provocation was a complete success for the US Government and had even greater success than it was expected to, there are still supporters of this conspiracy theory all over the world.

So, as the classification shows, the types of provocations can vary on different implementations. Though some provocative acts didn’t have that great success in the past, they will remain a powerful lever of influence on the political arena for the next decades. The art of provocations has already reached a significant level since the beginning of the humanity development and will improve in the future.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, despite the fact that people can treat provocations in different ways, the power of them as one of the political levers of influence is immense nowadays. That is why the provocative technique remains an interesting and useful subject for exploration for various scientists, politicians and others. Undoubtedly, certain groups of people in the international community will continue to use provocations with their huge diversity of application ways and forms in the process of power struggle. Therefore, if someone wants to affect political situation, it is essential for him to know how provocations can be applied for it, but what is, probably, more important, is to remember to be careful with them, as provocations may lead to unexpected and uncontrolled circumstances. Finally, the materials that are presented in the article alongside with complex classification of provocations can be applied during further scientific researches in this sphere as well as used for the current work of politicians, political technologists, etc.