The evolution and impact of Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin in a Multipolar world. / Развитие и влияние «Боко Харам» в бассейне озера Чад в условиях многополярного мира

Ауа Джеремай Акуро ORCID: 0000-0002-8085-0894 ассистент, кафедра Теории и истории международных отношений, Российский университет дружбы народов имени патриса лумумбы 117198, Россия, г. Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 15, кв. 14 Awah Jeremaih Acuro Postgraduate student, Department of Theory and History of International Relations, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 15, sq. 14 acuro96@gmail.com Другие публикации этого автора     Сюэ Фужун аспирант; кафедра теории и истории международных отношений; Российский университет дружбы народов имени Патриса Лумумбы 117198, Россия, Московская область, г. Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 21, кв. 3 Xue Furong Postgraduate student, Department of Theory and History of International Relations, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 21, sq. 3 xuefurong111@gmail.com Нгойе Софи Татьяна аспирант; кафедра теории и истории международных отношений; Российский университет дружбы народов имени Патриса Лумумбы 117198, Россия, Московская область, г. Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 15, кв. 1 Ngoye Sophie tatiana Postgraduate student, Department of Theory and History of International Relations, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 15, sq. 1 sophie.ngoye.sn@gmail.com

Ачонва Етель Чинве аспирант; кафедра теории и истории международных отношений; Российский университет дружбы народов имени Патриса Лумумбы 117198, Россия, Московская область, г. Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 3, кв. 22 Achonwa Ethel CHinwe Postgraduate student, Department of Theory and History of International Relations, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 3, sq. 22 ethelchinwe@mail.ru

1- Introduction

The current pace of global terrorism and instability spreading is considerably higher than that of any previous century. This is due to the fact that militants are organizing a wide array of groups and initiatives, ranging from political parties to cultural organizations to religious groups and local coalitions. This situation has arisen as a result of their concerted efforts. While several outbreaks occurred in Africa between the late 20th and early 21st centuries, it has become an issue that requires global, regional, and national level discussions. The majority of African countries were colonized during the Industrial Revolution, which expedited the scramble for Africa. European colonizers partitioned the continent to reduce the likelihood of conflict, and although many indigenous people were displaced, a significant number harbored resentment towards those who had compelled them to leave their homes.^[1]

This paper analyses the origin, impacts and suggests government cooperation with foreign partners to fight Boko Haram. The Boko Haram insurgency, which began in July 2009, is an ongoing armed conflict between the Nigerian government together with countries of the Lake Chad Basin Region, and the Islamic extremist group, Boko Haram.^[2] The group, whose name translates to "Western education is forbidden" in the Hausa language, seeks to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria.^[3]

2- Origin and Ideology of Boko Haram

Boko Haram is a terrorist group known for its extreme and sporadic attacks, driven by the ideology of a fanatical Islamic. It originated in the early 2000s and poses a significant challenge in Northern Nigeria and Cameroon.^[4] The group's beliefs are based on the teachings of Muhammed Marwa, who strongly opposed Western education and influence in Nigerian society. Despite initially being overlooked by Nigerian authorities in the 1970s, Marwa's anti-government sermons and growing following led to a government crackdown in the late 1970s, sparking a series of uprisings and riots.^[5] Marwa's goal was to reintroduce Sharia law in Northern Nigeria, and his death in the 1980s paved the way for Muhammad Yusuf to become the leader of Boko Haram.^[6] Yusuf aimed to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria and garnered support by addressing poverty and corruption within the government. The group's official name, Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad, means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad" in Arabic, but it is commonly known as Boko Haram, which translates to "Western education is forbidden" in the local Hausa language.^[7] After Yusuf's death in 2009, his deputy, Abubakar Shekau, became the leader and has declared loyalty to ISIS.^[8] The group's membership is largely comprised of individuals who have experienced socioeconomic injustice and insecurity, and many are uneducated, poor, jobless, or from low socioeconomic backgrounds.

Nigerian authorities believed Shekau was killed in 2009 during clashes between security forces and Boko Haram, but in July 2010 he appeared in a video claiming leadership of the group. His death was announced successively by the Nigerian authorities several times, but he always reappeared in another part of Northern Nigeria.^[9] In March 2015, Shekau pledged allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Shekau is a Salafi. Over the past few years, Boko Haram has been responsible for several brutal attacks, including bombings across northern Nigeria and has expanded its activities south, where it has attacked targets in Nigeria's capital, Abuja. These attacks occurred on high-level government offices, markets, banks, police stations and churches. The group, initially considered a domestic terrorist group, has also successfully carried out transnational attacks and attacked international targets. This not only led to a change in their description and status, but also attracted worldwide attention.^[10]

The group's leadership says it has more than 40,000 members in Nigeria, as well as some from neighboring African countries. Note that among them are some members of the Nigerian political elite, including two former military commanders-in-chief and a former civilian vice-president from the north, all of whom have been indicted. Some members of the state security forces are also members of the group and allegedly helped train it. This has created many problems, including the fact that in August 2011, the commander of US Africa Command, General Carter Ham, stated that Boko Haram had and continues to have ties to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and al-Shabab of Somalia, two other terrorist groups under close surveillance. In fact, in May 2014, Boko Haram was added to the UN Security Council's list of terrorist groups due to their ties to al-Qaeda. It is now subject to financial sanctions and an arms embargo, and any group that provides Boko Haram with any financial or material support is also subject to al-Qaeda sanctions.^[11]

3- Impact of the Boko Haram insurgencies.

The Boko Haram insurgency has had significant social, economic, and political consequences for Nigeria and the surrounding region. The conflict has led to the death of thousands of people, the displacement of millions of people, and the destruction of property worth billions of naira.^[12] The insurgency has also exacerbated poverty, brought massive human suffering, and destroyed property, leading to a loss of confidence in the system and a reliance on divine intervention for protection.^[13] The insurgency has also had a profound impact on education, with schools being targeted and students being killed or kidnapped. The most notable example is the mass kidnapping of more than 275 girls from a boarding school in Chibok in 2014, which generated international condemnation and offers of assistance to Nigeria.^[14]

Boko Haram's trans-border attacks into Cameroon's northern border communities have negatively impacted the already vulnerable economic base of the North, Far North, and Adamawa regions. These incursions have not only weakened the local economy but also endangered the safety of the vulnerable populations in these regions. In response, Cameroon has been compelled to allocate additional military personnel and resources to its northern regions to Boko Haram's escalating violent and merciless operations.^[15] Due to the spread of insurgency activities into Northern Cameroon and regions of Niger and Chad, the imperative to control this brutal terrorist group has evolved into a regional dimension.^[16]

4- Government Response to counter Boko Haram.

The Nigerian government's response to the Boko Haram insurgency has been characterized by a mix of military action, political engagement, and legal measures. The government initially pursued a strategy of military confrontation, which had limited success in driving Boko Haram from larger cities but did little to end the attacks.^[17] In 2013, the government proposed an amnesty program for Boko Haram militants, which was rejected by Shekau.^[18] In response to the group's continued attacks, the government launched a large-scale military offensive against Boko Haram, employing thousands of troops and air strikes In June 2013, President Jonathan officially declared Boko Haram a terrorist group and banned it under Nigerian law, making it easier for authorities to prosecute members of the group legally.^[19]

Cameroon, whose Far North Region has been severely affected by the violence, has taken strong action. As far back as 2016 Amnesty International reported on arbitrary arrests, torture and summary executions in overcrowded prisons filled with suspected terrorist suspects living under "horrific conditions."^[20]. In June, Niger launched a major offensive against Boko Haram. Chad also joined Niger by deploying a 2,000-strong contingent to Bosso, Niger, in response to escalating attacks.^[21]

Multi National Joint Force.

The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) is a combined multinational formation established in April 2012, initially by Nigeria, to secure the north-east region against armed bandits from the Chadian war. Its mandate expanded in 1998 to include military units from Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, dealing with common cross-border security problems in the Lake Chad region.^[22] The MNJTF's primary role was to secure the borders between the Lake Chad Basin countries, preventing Boko Haram from accessing the borders for launching attacks. It has been successful in reducing the menace of Boko Haram, liberating territories and hostages, and neutralizing a significant number of insurgents.^[23] The MNJTF operates in four national sectors: Sector 1 (Cameroon), Sector 2 (Chad), Sector 3 (Nigeria), and Sector 4 (Niger), with a total of approximately 10,000 soldiers. It has made significant progress in delivering on its mandates, including creating a safe and secure environment, facilitating the implementation of stabilization programs, and interacting with local populations^[24]. However, challenges remain, such as coordination and interpretation of mandates, as well as the failure of non-military actors to hold areas cleared of Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs).^[25] The withdrawal of Niger from the MNJTF in July 2023 due to ECOWAS sanctions may create a void, increasing the level of terrorist and insurgency activities in the region. This could potentially lead to a resurgence of terrorism and insurgency, undermining the earlier successes of the MNJTF.^[26] The MNJTF, with its multinational approach, plays a crucial role in combating Boko Haram and ensuring the security of the Lake Chad Basin region. The MNJTF counterterrorism activities are in strict respect of the current international law corresponding to the principle of self-defense and collective self-defense as in case of aggression as enshrined in the UN Charter.^[27]

5- Overview of the assistance from Africa’s larger international partners.

A- The contribution of Russia in Fighting Boko Haram

From the mid-1950s onwards, as Africa emerged as a significant front in the Cold War, the Soviet Union played a pivotal role in transforming the continent's political and security dynamics. By offering substantial economic and security aid to a wide array of local Marxist, anti-colonial, or anti-U.S. factions, the Soviet Union was able to extend its influence across Africa. This support was particularly notable during the colonial conflict era, with the Soviet Union backing independence movements and providing assistance to governments facing internal or external challenges. This strategy allowed the Soviet Union to establish a strong presence in major African countries, including but not limited to Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, and Mozambique.^[28] After the fall of the Soviet Empire, the Russian Federation was struggling to reestablish political and socioeconomic stability, which led to an interruption of the country’s economic and military assistance programs on the continent. For about two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country’s involvement in Africa was marginal.

Russia's attempts to re-engage with the continent started in the mid 2000s and the efforts increased after facing western sanctions when Crimea voted to join Russia in a referendum in 2014. The country was actively seeking new geopolitical partners and business opportunities after Western sanctions. Russia's renewed interest in Africa has paralleled, and in some cases been facilitated by, a decrease in U.S. involvement on the continent. This includes the Trump administration's decision in 2018 to reduce U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Africa, despite the escalating terror threats in many African countries. In response, Russia quickly stepped in to fill the security gap. In 2019, President Putin convened the inaugural Russia-Africa summit in Sochi, aiming to solidify Russia's position as a dependable strategic partner in Africa and to negotiate military contracts with various nations. The country is now the chief arms supplier of the continent, higher than the United States (16 percent of imports), China (9.8 percent of imports) and France (7.6 percent of imports). Indeed, Russia exports of major weapons systems account for 40 percent of the continent’s imports between 2018 and 2022 according to reports from RAND Corporation.^[29]

One country that has vastly profited from Russia’s involvement in the security of the continent is Nigeria. The country was facing insurgency threats from the seemingly invisible Boko Haram in the North East. The insurgency began in July 2009^[30][31]. Taking place in a context of long standing issues between Nigeria’s muslim communities and Christian communities, the terrorist group was created with an aim to establish an Islamic State in the region. Nigeria, faced with an unwillingness from the USA and Britain to provide weapons due to reports mentioning a collusion between high ranking military officials and members of the sect^[32] first turned to Israel and Brazil and reached agreements in 2014 for the procurement of lethal weapons to aid in the fight against the terrorist group.^[33] But the deals were blocked by the USA.^[34] Needing help with its antiterrorist efforts, Nigeria turned to Russia. The positive response from Moscow marked a new milestone in the bilateral relations between the nations. Russia, like Nigeria, had to face terrorist threats on its territory, especially when it launched war against a terrorist group in Grozny, Chechnya.^[35] Those wars led to numerous attacks in the country, and forced the regime to declare the fight against terrorism domestically and abroad a top priority. In fact, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov acknowledged that ISIS was the country’s biggest enemy in 2015.^[36]

In August 2017, Russia's support to Nigeria became official with the signing of a cooperation agreement. This agreement allowed Moscow to provide training for military missions aimed at combating terrorism and piracy, as well as training Nigerian personnel in peacekeeping missions. Additionally, in October 2019, a security agreement was signed between Russia and Nigeria, under which Russia committed to supplying weapons, equipment, and training to Nigerian security forces to counter Boko Haram's activities within Nigerian territory.^[37] While specific details on the types of weapons provided by Moscow to Nigeria are not officially documented, various reports suggest that Nigeria received T-72 tanks, multiple RM70 missile launchers, anti-mine mines, and MI35 helicopters, along with all necessary weapons and accessories.^[38]

Russia's assistance in combating Boko Haram also extended to neighbouring countries facing significant challenges. Among these, Niger was a key focus, with Russia's strategy focusing on two main areas. Firstly, in October 2019, Russia agreed to supply Niger with 12 MI-35 attack helicopters to help combat extremist activities within the country.^[39] The second pillar of Russia's strategy in Niger involves providing training grants to Nigerian military personnel in Russian academies, focusing on the latest techniques for combating armed groups. This initiative was acknowledged by Niger's Foreign Minister, Kala Ankurau, in interviews with various international news outlets.^[40]

Cameroon was also among the countries that Russia aimed to assist in combating Boko Haram operations. In 2015, Russia announced plans to provide military aid to Cameroon, which included heavy artillery equipment, missiles, air defences, anti-aircraft missile systems, and armored vehicles. In addition to military and technical cooperation agreements between the two countries, Moscow also offered specialized military training for Cameroonian forces to counter Boko Haram.^[41]. It is worth nothing that,ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Boko Haram are recognised as extremist and banned in Russia.

B-The contribution of China in Fighting Boko Haram

The origins of China's assistance to Africa can be traced back to the late 1950s and early 1960s, a period in which it mainly supported the independence and development of African countries through the provision of economic assistance, technical support, and human resource training.^[42] The first ministerial meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing in 2000 led to the further development of China-Africa bilateral relations.^[43] The security challenges facing the African region have increased in the 21st century, including terrorism, internal conflicts, and transnational crime, which not only threaten the stability and development of African countries, but also pose a threat to the security of the international community, including China. With the promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the increase of China's outward direct investment, China's economic interests in Africa have grown significantly. The stability of Africa is directly related to the security of China's investment and economic interests there, so China is more concerned about the security environment in Africa. On the other hand, as China's military power grows, China wants to take more responsibility in global governance. Therefore, based on the concepts of mutual respect, win-win cooperation and "community of human destiny", China has provided appropriate assistance and support in addressing regional security challenges in Africa.

At the level of the international community, in the UN's already global counter-terrorism conferences, Chinese representatives have repeatedly called on the international community to help African countries eradicate the threat of terrorism. China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, speaking at the Security Council's debate on combating terrorism and extremism in Africa on 11 November 2020, emphasized that the international community should help Africa to combat terrorism and extremism in a comprehensive and integrated manner.^[44] In 2023, Liu Yuxi, Special Representative of the Chinese Government for African Affairs, proposed at a high-level open meeting of the United Nations Security Council on strengthening cooperation between the United Nations and regional organizations on counter-terrorism that "at present, terrorist activities are spreading globally, and Boko Haram and other terrorist organizations in Africa are closely linked to Al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations in Africa. "At present, terrorist activities are spreading globally, terrorist organizations in Africa, such as Boko Haram, are collaborating with Al-Qaida and the Islamic State, regional hotspot issues continue to be volatile, and there is a long way to go in eradicating the threat of terrorism. The international community should sense Africa's urgency, think about what Africa thinks, and work together to help Africa meet the most urgent challenges and solve the root causes of the problems." He also mentioned that China has always been a strong supporter of Africa's development. And he also mentioned that China has always been an ally of the cause of peace and security in Africa. China will continue to take the implementation of the Global Security Initiative and the Global Development Initiative as the starting point to join hands with Africa to build a high-level China-Africa community of destiny, and to contribute more to the realization of lasting peace and sustainable development in Africa.^[45]

In addition, the Chinese government has been actively contributing to humanitarian hosting organizations such as the World Food Program (WFP) to alleviate the suffering of Boko Haram victims, including refugees, returnees, host populations and internally displaced persons.^[46] Chinese peacekeeping forces in Africa have been involved in a variety of missions, including counter-terrorism and civil protection. According to the International Crisis Group (Crisis Group), China is the second largest contributor to the UN peacekeeping budget and has increased its contributions to UN peacekeeping operations since 2013, covering a wide range of roles such as infantry and police. These peacekeepers are mainly deployed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Sudan and South Sudan. In addition, through the establishment of the UN Trust Fund for Peace and Development, China has also supported capacity-building programs for peacekeeping in Africa, including the training of African police and soldiers in peacekeeping operations and support for the African Union's "Silence of the Guns" initiative.^[47]

At the national level China has taken several measures to support and maintain peace and security in the African region through military cooperation with Africa. For example, between 2003 and 2017, China provided $2.52 billion in loans to eight countries explicitly for military and defense purposes.^[48] Through these loans, African countries have strengthened their military power and upgraded the capacity of African forces to fight terrorism and the logistical support of their troops. Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Uganda, and Ghana have also taken advantage of the use of loans to establish national security communication and surveillance systems.^[49] China has committed about $25 million per year between 2015 and 2020 to the African Union in security force assistance. The assistance is aimed at enhancing the capacity of the security forces of the receiving countries, including military equipment and training.^[50] In addition, China's infrastructure investment cooperation in Africa has provided a platform for both sides to enhance security cooperation, including intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism training, and joint exercises. This international cooperation has helped build a closer counterterrorism network to jointly address transnational terrorist threats. Particularly in the fight against Boko Haram terrorism, China has sold significant amounts of military equipment to Nigeria. China has provided Nigeria with drones, guided bombs, and missiles to help Nigeria fight Boko Haram. By 2020, the Nigerian Air Force announced the purchase of more drones from China, demonstrating the deepening military ties between the two countries.^[51] In 2013, China sent its first defense attaché to Cameroon. Between 2012 and 2014, China sent a variety of weapons to Cameroon, including transport aircraft and combat helicopters. These weapons were not only used to fight the Boko Haram terrorist organization, but were also deployed to other parts of the country.^[52] In the face of global and regional security challenges, including terrorism and piracy, China has enhanced its security cooperation with Nigeria and Cameroon through military assistance, which has helped to protect China's investments and expatriates in Africa. At the same time, through military assistance and training, China has helped African countries upgrade their own defense capabilities and enhance their ability to respond to threats such as terrorism, piracy and transnational crime. Such support helps to realize regional stability and peace and is in line with the purpose of the community of human destiny in pursuing global security.

6- Conclusion

The challenging political and socioeconomic climate in Nigeria and other lake Chad basin states, has allowed for the emergence and appeal of various radical religious interpretations among the majority of disadvantaged youth who view religion as a tool to address societal shortcomings. The impact of the conflict has been devastating, with thousands of deaths, millions of displaced people, and significant damage to properties and infrastructure. The government's response to the conflict has been characterized by a mix of military action, political engagement, and legal measures, with varying degrees of success. An important way to remove the threat of the group in the long term is widespread reform of northern Nigeria that improves the livelihoods of northern Nigerians, and gives them a bigger stake in their politics. It is also important to consider a higher level collaboration with Russia and china as the assistance of the US and some European states has yielded less results.

Recommendations

In the light of the foregoing, this paper proposes the following recommendations;

1. Member states within the Lake Chad Region need to intensify efforts in tackling the fundamental social issues of injustice, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, and poor governance among them, as these factors facilitate the recruitment of youths into terrorist activities.

2. The MNJTF member states must prioritize adequate funding to enhance military capacity, capabilities, intelligence gathering, and the utilization of modern technology to effectively combat Boko Haram and other forms of terrorism in the region. This is crucial for sustaining the gains made by the MNJTF in clearing strongholds, eliminating top terrorist commanders, freeing civilians, and reducing terrorist attacks and fatalities.

3. This research suggests the creation and implementation of a worldwide collaborative theoretical model that urges major nations with military and technological capabilities to support developing nations in their battle against terrorist organizations. Collaboration with Russia and China who have positive and fruitful intervention in Africa, can help achieve these objective.