Правильная ссылка на статью:
Shkel, S.N., Shakirova, E.V..
Measuring opposition: index analysis of the dynamics
of competitive potential of the political opposition
// Law and Politics. – 2014. – № 8.
– С. 1139-1150.
DOI: 10.7256/1811-9018.2014.8.12250.
рубрика Власть и управление
DOI: 10.7256/1811-9018.2014.8.12250
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Аннотация: The object of the article involves the method for measuring competitive potential of political opposition via index
analysis. The provided scale for coding weak and strong points of the opposition takes into consideration both structural
possibilities and regime stimulate, providing for distribution of resources between government and opposition. The provided
method facilitates understanding of the factors responsible for the growth of opportunities for the opposition actors, as
well as determinants preventing it. Growth of the number of authoritarian regimes in the world and the tendencies for the
democracy deficit, showing themselves lately, make the problem of calculating the real competitive potential of political
opposition in the conditions especially topical, when the electoral results get distorted and they therefore fail to objectively
reflect the real support of opposition by the people. The method of studies is index analysis of political process. Formation
of the index scale for measuring the competitive potential of political processes was based upon the methodology of index
analysis by M.S. Shugart, J. Carey, as developed in the works A. Crowell and O.I. Zaznayev. The author used the experience
of index analysis of other precedents within the frameworks of political science. The authors of the article offered the
method of operationalizing the term “competitive potential of the political opposition” as an index scale for encoding the
strong points of government and opposition, allowing to measure and calculate the index of competitive potential of the
political opposition. As a test, the method of index analysis is used to measure the dynamics of evolution of the political
opposition in Russia in 1993-2012.
Ключевые слова: Political opposition, index analysis, Russia, political regime, measurement methods, political elites, counterelites, political actors, electorate, power.
Контактная информация: Shkel, Stanislav Nikolaevich, 450064, Russia, Ufa, Kosmonavtov, 1.
Библиография:
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Khantington S. Tret'ya volna: demokratizatsiya v kontse KhKh v. M.: Progress, 2003. C. 178-181
Shcherbak A.N. «Neftyanoe proklyatie» politicheskogo razvitiya // Neft', gaz, modernizatsiya obshchestva. SPb.: «Ekonomicheskaya shkola» GU VShE, 2008.
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Gandhi J., Reuter O. J. The incentives for pre-electoral coalitions in non-democratic elections // Democratization. 2013. Vol. 20. No. 1. P. 137-159.
Gerschewski J. The three pillars of stability: legitimation, repression, and co-optation in autocratic regimes // Democratization. 2013. Vol. 20. No. 1. P. 13-38.
Greene K. The Political Economy of Authoritarian Single-Party Dominance // Comparative Political Studies. 2010. Vol. 43. No. 7. P.807-834.
Higley J., Burton M. The Elite Variable in Democratic Transition and Breakdowns // American Sociological Review. 1989. Vol. 54. No. 1. P. 17-32.
Linz J. Opposition to and under an Authoritarian Regime: The Case of Spain // Regimes and Oppositions / R.Dahl (ed.). New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1978.
Lipset S. M. Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy // American Political Science Review. 1995. Vol. 53. No. 1. P. 69-105.
Magaloni B. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico. UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006. P. 91-110
Magaloni B. Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule // Comparative Political Studies. 2008. Vol. 41. No. 4-5. P. 715-741.
O’Donnell G., Schmitter Ph. Whitehead L. Transition from Authoritarian Rule: Prospects for Democracy. London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986. p. 73
Pepinsky T. The Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Non-Transitions // Government and Opposition. 2012. Vol. 47. No. 2. P. 135-147.
Ross M. L. Does Oil Hinder Democracy? // World Politics. 2001. Vol. 53. No. 3. P. 325-361.
Shuqart M.S. Carey J.M. Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics. UK: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
Way L. Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine // World Politics. 2005. Vol. 57. No. 2. P. 231-261.
References (transliteration):
Almond G., Verba S. Grazhdanskaya kul'tura i stabil'nost' demokratii // Polis. 1992. № 4. S. 122-134.
Vasil'eva S.V. Konstitutsionno-pravovoy status politicheskoy oppozitsii. M.: Institut prava i publichnoy politiki, 2010. S.11.
Gel'man V.Ya. Iz ognya da v polymya? Dinamika postsovetskikh rezhimov v sravnitel'noy perspektive // Polis. 2007. № 2. S. 81-108.
Dal' R. Poliarkhiya: uchastie i oppozitsiya. M.: GU VShE, 2010. C. 8
Dyuverzhe M. Politicheskie partii. M.: Akademicheskiy prospekt, 2000. S.345
Zaznaev O.I. Indeksnyy analiz poluprezidentskikh gosudarstv Evropy i postsovetskogo prostranstva // Polis. 2007. № 2. S. 146-164.
Lints X., Stepan A. Gosudarstvennost', natsionalizm i demokratizatsiya // Polis. 1997. № 5. S. 9-30.
Lints Kh. Opasnosti prezidentstva // Predely vlasti. 1994. № 2-3. (http://old.russ.ru/antolog/predely/2-3/dem14.htm)
Mel'vil' A.Yu. Opyt teoretiko-metodologicheskogo sinteza strukturnogo i protsedurnogo podkhodov k demokraticheskim tranzitam // Polis. 1998. № 2. S. 6-38.
Merkel' V., Kruassan A. Formal'nye i neformal'nye instituty v defektnykh demokratiyakh (I) // Polis. 2002. № 1. S. 6-17.
Mironyuk M. G., Timofeev I. N., Vaslavskiy I. Ya. Universal'nye sravneniya s ispol'zovaniem kolichestvennykh metodov analiza (Obzor pretsedentov) // Polis. 2006. № 5. S. 39-57.
Nort D. Instituty, institutsional'nye izmeneniya i funktsionirovanie ekonomiki. M.: Fond ekonomicheskoy knigi «Nachalo», 1997.
Olson M. Logika kollektivnykh deystviy. Obshchestvennye blaga i teoriya grupp. M.: FEI, 1995. C. 14
Rastou D. Perekhody k demokratii: popytka dinamicheskoy modeli // Polis. 1996. № 5. S. 5-15.
Rogov K. Gipoteza tret'ego tsikla // Pro et Contra. 2010. №4-5. S. 6-22.
Rouz R., Manro N., Mishler U. Vynuzhdennoe prinyatie «nepolnoy» demokratii. Politicheskoe ravnovesie v Rossii // Vestnik obshchestvennogo mneniya. 2005. № 2. S. 30-42.
Salikhov D. R. Aktual'nye voprosy oppozitsionnoy deyatel'nosti v Rossiyskoy Federatsii // Sovremennye nauchnye issledovaniya i innovatsii. 2010. ( http://web.snauka.ru/issues/2011/07/1421).
Khantington S. Tret'ya volna: demokratizatsiya v kontse KhKh v. M.: Progress, 2003. C. 178-181
Shcherbak A.N. «Neftyanoe proklyatie» politicheskogo razvitiya // Neft', gaz, modernizatsiya obshchestva. SPb.: «Ekonomicheskaya shkola» GU VShE, 2008.
Bueno De Mesquita, Smith A., Siverson R., Morrow J. M. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2003. P. 134
Darden K., Grzymaa-Busse A.M. The Great Divide: Literacy, Nationalism, and the Communist Collapse // World Politics. 2006. Vol. 59. No. 1. P. 83-115.
Gandhi J., Przeworski A. Cooperation, cooptation and rebellion under dictatorship // Economics and Politics. 2006. Vol. 18. No. 1. P. 1-26.
Gandhi J., Reuter O. J. The incentives for pre-electoral coalitions in non-democratic elections // Democratization. 2013. Vol. 20. No. 1. P. 137-159.
Gerschewski J. The three pillars of stability: legitimation, repression, and co-optation in autocratic regimes // Democratization. 2013. Vol. 20. No. 1. P. 13-38.
Greene K. The Political Economy of Authoritarian Single-Party Dominance // Comparative Political Studies. 2010. Vol. 43. No. 7. P.807-834.
Higley J., Burton M. The Elite Variable in Democratic Transition and Breakdowns // American Sociological Review. 1989. Vol. 54. No. 1. P. 17-32.
Linz J. Opposition to and under an Authoritarian Regime: The Case of Spain // Regimes and Oppositions / R.Dahl (ed.). New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1978.
Lipset S. M. Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy // American Political Science Review. 1995. Vol. 53. No. 1. P. 69-105.
Magaloni B. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico. UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006. P. 91-110
Magaloni B. Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule // Comparative Political Studies. 2008. Vol. 41. No. 4-5. P. 715-741.
O’Donnell G., Schmitter Ph. Whitehead L. Transition from Authoritarian Rule: Prospects for Democracy. London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986. p. 73
Pepinsky T. The Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Non-Transitions // Government and Opposition. 2012. Vol. 47. No. 2. P. 135-147.
Ross M. L. Does Oil Hinder Democracy? // World Politics. 2001. Vol. 53. No. 3. P. 325-361.
Shuqart M.S. Carey J.M. Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics. UK: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
Way L. Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine // World Politics. 2005. Vol. 57. No. 2. P. 231-261.