Стерник Г.М., Стерник С.Г., Свиридов А.В. Развитие и совершенствование методов прогнозирования на рынке жилой недвижимости

Аннотация: В настоящей статье представлен обзор и анализ существующих методов прогнозирования развития рынка недвижимости. Рассмотрены работы отечественных и зарубежных авторов. Выявлены достоинства и границы применимости каждого из методов. Прослежена эволюция методов прогнозирования рынка недвижимости, применяемых на территории РФ начиная с 1996 года по настоящее время, в том числе подробно рассмотрена наиболее новая и обладающая наибольшими прогностическими способностями методика, основанная на использовании имитационной (пошаговой) блочно-модульной итерационной модели с обратными связями. Также приведены результаты апробации и ретроспективной проверки данной методики, подтверждающие состоятельность методики. Кроме этого, проведен ряд расчетных экспериментов по влиянию на динамику развития рынка макроэкономических и отраслевых параметров, подтверждающих возможность использования данной методики для обоснования целевых объемов ввода жилья. In this article a survey and analysis of existent forecasting real estate market development methods are represented. Native and foreign authors works are viewed. There has been discovered advantages and scopes of each method, evolution of forecasting methods that are applied in Russian territory starting from 1996 till present has been retraced including detailed overview of the latest and possessing the most successful forecasting abilities methodology based on imitating (stepped) block-module iterative model with feedbacks. Also there are results of approval and retrospective test of this methodology, that confirm its justifiability. Besides there has been carried out some calculating experiments revealing an impact of macroeconomic and sectoral parameters on market development dynamics. This experiments bear out the possibility of methodology usage for target placement of accommodation.

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Abstract: Culture tourism is generally concentrated in the city centre and most people believe that culture tourists have no business in the periphery. But if one would succeed in diverting a substantial part of culture tourism to the outskirts or the periphery, this would lead to dispersion of visitors, relief of the pressure on the city centre and increased manageability of tourism. In contrast to the important role the Constructivist architects played in the development of modern architecture, some of the buildings from that period appear to be in a rather poor condition, whereas these buildings provide good opportunities for redevelopment for the creative industry and for culture tourism. There is no doubt that the early modernist architecture of Moscow can be a popular attraction for culture tourists. More attention for this architecture in general, creates advantages in a direct economic sense, related to culture tourism, but also advantages in terms of relieving the pressure on the city centre, in terms of dispersing economic activities to the outskirts and the periphery, in terms of stimulating new functions in rather mono-functional areas. Advantages in terms of keeping variation and high architectural quality within otherwise rather low-quality areas (which the outskirts are now) and in making pleasant physical and visual environments. Even in new urban development areas, heritage can be a source of inspiration and can develop into an icon and therefore a tourist attraction. For instance by building older designs by Melnikov or and Tatlin. In short: heritage does not always have to cost a lot of money; it could even bring money, if handled well. More attention for this architecture in general, creates advantages in a direct economic sense, related to culture tourism, but also advantages in terms of relieving the pressure on the city centre, in terms of dispersing economic activities to the outskirts and the periphery, in terms of stimulating new functions in rather mono-functional areas. Advantages in terms of keeping variation and high architectural quality within otherwise rather low-quality areas (which the outskirts are now) and in making pleasant physical and visual environments. Even in new urban development areas, heritage can be a source of inspiration and can develop into an icon and therefore a tourist attraction. For instance by building older designs by Melnikov or and Tatlin. In short: heritage does not always have to cost a lot of money; it could even bring money, if handled well.

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